Manager Evidence
What did Guy Spier actually do?
A source-backed history of material decisions from Aquamarine Capital. We preserve the sequence and observed outcomes instead of compressing judgment into a guru grade.
- Material decisions
- 8
- Stocks observed
- 7
- Outcomes observed
- 8
Each outcome preserves the stock’s post-disclosure excess return over the fixed observation window. The evidence stays decision-level; it is not rolled into a manager score.
Observed decisions and outcomes
Q4 2025
filed Jan 15, 2026
15d lag
-6.8% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Jan 15, 2026
15d lag
-11.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Jan 15, 2026
15d lag
-6.2% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Jan 15, 2026
15d lag
-0.6% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Jan 15, 2026
15d lag
+22.6% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Jan 15, 2026
15d lag
-17.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Jan 15, 2026
15d lag
+0.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q3 2025
filed Oct 20, 2025
20d lag
+90.0% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
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The evidence is limited to selected widely owned U.S.-listed securities in Form 13F filings. Filing dates can trail quarter end by up to 45 days in the normal reporting cycle, and the filings do not disclose transaction dates, prices, or intent.