Decision Timeline

TSM, decision by decision.

Not just who owns it now. This is the sequence of material choices managers reported, when each choice became visible, and the observed result after disclosure.

Material decisions: 48
Buy / add: 25
Trim / exit: 23

The cohort disagreed in Q2 2026.

At least one tracked manager bought or added while another trimmed or exited. The disagreement is the signal; it is not collapsed into a consensus score.

Eight-quarter evidence

8 reported quarters

Q2 2026
filed Sep 2, 2026
64d lag
TRIM-87.0%
Joel Greenblatt · 1.0% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+13.9% vs SPY
21 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q2 2026
filed Aug 24, 2026
55d lag
ADD+92.0%
First Eagle Investment Management · 3.0% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+12.8% vs SPY
28 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q2 2026
filed Aug 14, 2026
45d lag
ADD+24.3%
David Tepper · 10.5% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+10.1% vs SPY
34 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q2 2026
filed Aug 14, 2026
45d lag
TRIM-42.5%
Lee Ainslie · 4.9% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+10.1% vs SPY
34 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q2 2026
filed Aug 14, 2026
45d lag
ADD+67.3%
Daniel Loeb · 4.7% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+10.1% vs SPY
34 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q2 2026
filed Aug 14, 2026
45d lag
ADD+14322.6%
Terry Smith · 4.3% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+10.1% vs SPY
34 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q2 2026
filed Aug 14, 2026
45d lag
TRIM-29.1%
Viking Global Investors · 4.2% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+10.1% vs SPY
34 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q2 2026
filed Aug 14, 2026
45d lag
TRIM-92.7%
Stephen Mandel · 3.7% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+10.1% vs SPY
34 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q2 2026
filed Aug 14, 2026
45d lag
TRIM-29.6%
Hillman Capital Management · 1.9% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+10.1% vs SPY
34 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q2 2026
filed Aug 13, 2026
44d lag
ADD+1236.5%
Dodge & Cox Funds · 0.4% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+11.8% vs SPY
35 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q2 2026
filed Aug 4, 2026
35d lag
ADD+186.9%
Polen Capital Management · 2.1% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+14.3% vs SPY
42 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q2 2026
filed Jul 29, 2026
29d lag
TRIM-95.4%
William Von Mueffling · 5.6% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+13.5% vs SPY
46 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q1 2026
filed May 19, 2026
49d lag
TRIM-87.7%
Duan Yongping · 2.1% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-1.2% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q1 2026
filed May 15, 2026
45d lag
TRIM-29.9%
David Rolfe · 10.5% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+4.2% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q1 2026
filed May 15, 2026
45d lag
ADD+49.4%
Chase Coleman · 8.2% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+4.2% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q1 2026
filed May 15, 2026
45d lag
TRIM-54.5%
Stephen Mandel · 6.8% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+4.2% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q1 2026
filed May 15, 2026
45d lag
TRIM-25.4%
Lee Ainslie · 5.4% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+4.2% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q1 2026
filed May 15, 2026
45d lag
TRIM-35.3%
Daniel Loeb · 1.8% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+4.2% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q1 2026
filed May 15, 2026
45d lag
ADD+34.9%
Joel Greenblatt · 1.0% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+4.2% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q1 2026
filed May 14, 2026
44d lag
TRIM-34.3%
First Eagle Investment Management · 3.2% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+0.4% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Feb 17, 2026
48d lag
TRIM-29.0%
Stanley Druckenmiller · 5.4% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+1.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Feb 17, 2026
48d lag
ADD+24.6%
Viking Global Investors · 4.0% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+1.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Feb 17, 2026
48d lag
TRIM-61.4%
Daniel Loeb · 3.7% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+1.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Feb 17, 2026
48d lag
ADD+370.9%
Duan Yongping · 2.1% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+1.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Feb 17, 2026
48d lag
ADD+485.0%
Joel Greenblatt · 0.6% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+1.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Feb 13, 2026
44d lag
ADD+62.7%
Lee Ainslie · 5.4% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+2.8% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Feb 13, 2026
44d lag
TRIM-96.5%
Francois Rochon · 3.9% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+2.8% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q3 2025
filed Nov 17, 2025
48d lag
ADD+3870.6%
Francois Rochon · 3.9% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+26.0% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q3 2025
filed Nov 14, 2025
45d lag
TRIM-42.1%
Lee Ainslie · 6.1% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+25.4% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q3 2025
filed Nov 14, 2025
45d lag
TRIM-23.1%
Daniel Loeb · 4.3% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+25.4% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q3 2025
filed Nov 14, 2025
45d lag
TRIM-30.6%
Hillman Capital Management · 2.0% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+25.4% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q3 2025
filed Nov 14, 2025
45d lag
ADD+270.7%
Joel Greenblatt · 0.1% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+25.4% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q2 2025
filed Aug 15, 2025
46d lag
ADD+27.8%
Stanley Druckenmiller · 4.4% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+12.5% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q2 2025
filed Aug 14, 2025
45d lag
ADD+20.7%
Lee Ainslie · 6.1% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+15.5% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q2 2025
filed Aug 14, 2025
45d lag
ADD+279.6%
David Tepper · 3.6% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+15.5% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q2 2025
filed Aug 14, 2025
45d lag
ADD+792.4%
Hillman Capital Management · 2.0% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+15.5% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q2 2025
filed Aug 14, 2025
45d lag
TRIM-33.9%
Prem Watsa · 1.3% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+15.5% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q2 2025
filed Aug 5, 2025
36d lag
NEWNEW
Torray Funds · 0.9% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+23.9% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q1 2025
filed May 15, 2025
45d lag
ADD+456.9%
Stanley Druckenmiller · 3.3% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+14.8% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q1 2025
filed May 15, 2025
45d lag
NEWNEW
Mairs & Power Funds · 0.7% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+14.8% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q1 2025
filed May 15, 2025
45d lag
TRIM-56.2%
Joel Greenblatt · 0.2% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+14.8% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q4 2024
filed Feb 14, 2025
45d lag
ADD+100.9%
Lee Ainslie · 4.4% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-1.3% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q4 2024
filed Feb 14, 2025
45d lag
NEWNEW
Viking Global Investors · 2.6% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-1.3% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q4 2024
filed Feb 14, 2025
45d lag
ADD+87.5%
Stanley Druckenmiller · 0.6% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-1.3% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q4 2024
filed Feb 14, 2025
45d lag
TRIM-33.2%
Joel Greenblatt · 0.3% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-1.3% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q4 2024
filed Feb 10, 2025
41d lag
TRIM-37.5%
David Tepper · 1.0% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-6.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q3 2024
filed Nov 14, 2024
45d lag
TRIM-29.8%
Stephen Mandel · 8.5% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+3.4% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q3 2024
filed Nov 14, 2024
45d lag
ADD+26.1%
Lee Ainslie · 2.1% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+3.4% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far

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Material means a new or exited position, or at least a 20% share-count change, with at least 0.5% portfolio weight or $100 million reported value. Share counts are adjusted for confirmed splits. Outcomes start after disclosure, not at an invented trade date, and are not manager returns.