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Quarterly Brief
2026Q2 — what the cohort just did
TL;DR
- 01AMZN is the quarter's consensus conviction trade: Klarman pushes it to 16.5% of Baupost (adds $243M) and Armitage nearly doubles his position (+51%); aggregate smart-money exposure spans 8+ investors across value, growth, and quality styles — highest cross-style overlap in the dataset.
- 02Terry Smith fully rebuilds his US book: exits MTD and ZTS (~$413M combined), initiates UBER ($213M), MA ($202M), NFLX ($156M), GEV ($151M), APP ($121M), and VEEV — the largest single-manager new-position cluster in the cohort; a rare wholesale portfolio rotation.
- 03Prem Watsa makes a dramatic hard-asset pivot: exits BB and KW entirely, opens EGO (gold miner, 16.2% of Fairfax) and nearly doubles KHC (+172%, $338M); combined with existing ORLA position, gold/hard-asset names now approach 40% of his reported long book.
- 04Li Lu doubles PDD (+134%, now 22.2% of portfolio) and adds to BRK/B (+23%), while simultaneously exiting BAC and OXY — a decisive rotation from US financials/energy to Chinese e-commerce; for one of the world's most concentrated deep-value managers, this is a top-tier signal.
- 05Chris Hohn exits MSFT (~$1B position, 2.2% of TCI) — notable given MSFT has been a core quality-compounder holding; combined with GE remaining his #1 position at 33.6%, TCI's factor profile shifts further toward industrials.
Watchlist
- 01AMZN — The single highest-conviction cross-style consensus in the cohort: value (Klarman, 16.5%), quality-growth (Armitage, 8.2%), and 6 additional steady holders; AWS + advertising FCF inflection is the shared thesis.
- 02APP (AppLovin) — Dorsey at 14.5% (his largest position) + Terry Smith initiating + Chase Coleman exiting creates a fascinating tension; the two buyers are bottom-up moat investors, making their simultaneous conviction more meaningful than Coleman's exit.
- 03MDLN (Medline) — Armitage's +277% add to $650M is the most aggressive single-position build in the dataset; a private-label medical supply company at this scale warrants immediate diligence on the go-public optionality.
- 04MCO (Moody's) — Hohn's $6.5B anchor + Armitage steady + Bryan Lawrence initiating (5.7%) creates a 4-manager consensus on the rating-agency duopoly; credit-cycle normalization and private-credit expansion are structural tailwinds.
- 05EGO/ORLA (Watsa gold complex) — Watsa's combined gold-mining exposure (EGO at 16.2% + ORLA at 21.5%) is extraordinary for a value insurance manager; either a macro call on USD/inflation or insider-edge in Canadian mining — either way, the sizing demands a view.
AI-generated. Not investment advice.
Per-bucket analyst tables(expand ↓)
Super Investor Brief — 2026Q2
New Positions
| Ticker | Investor | Value | % Port | Why This Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EGO | Prem Watsa | $427M | 16.2% | Watsa's largest single new bet in years; combined with ORLA, Fairfax is making a concentrated hard-money call at scale. |
| CBRS | Chase Coleman | $663M | 2.8% | Tiger Global initiates a $663M position in Cerebras post-IPO — Coleman's AI-silicon conviction is explicit; only investor in the cohort touching this name. |
| BDX | Greenhaven | $860M | 9.9% | Greenhaven builds a near-10% position in a dislocated medtech franchise; fits their deep-value, capital-allocation lens on beaten-down large-caps. |
| UBER | Terry Smith | $213M | 4.7% | Smith's buy validates the network-moat thesis he previously avoided on quality grounds; at 4.7% it's a real position, not a toe-dip. |
| MA | Terry Smith | $202M | 4.5% | New MA alongside existing V trim suggests Smith is rotating toward the faster-growing network; consensus buy with Vulcan and AKO adding simultaneously. |
| AMAT | John Armitage | $377M | 3.6% | Armitage re-enters semis equipment as AI capex cycle drives WFE demand; complements his NVDA add this quarter. |
| EFX | John Armitage | $235M | 2.3% | Armitage opens EFX while Vulcan also initiates — data-bureau duopoly play on mortgage/labor-market recovery; cross-style consensus (growth + value). |
| NFLX | Terry Smith | $156M | 3.5% | Funsmith initiates after years of avoidance; advertising tier economics now meet his ROCE threshold. Smith + Weitz both entering signals broad quality re-rating. |
| GEV | Terry Smith | $151M | 3.3% | GE Vernova as a power-infrastructure compounder fits Smith's capex-light bias only partially — the entry suggests he's underwriting the energy transition backlog as durable. |
| CME | Seth Klarman | $137M | 2.5% | Klarman opens CME as a macro-volatility beneficiary and capital-light monopoly; Baupost rarely buys compounders at scale — this reflects valuation opportunity or a vol/uncertainty hedge. |
Conviction Adds
| Ticker | Investor | New Value | % Port | Δ% Shares | Why This Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PDD | Li Lu | $821M | 22.2% | +134% | Li Lu more than doubles his #1 China holding — a jaw-dropping concentration move from one of the most disciplined concentrated investors alive. |
| KHC | Prem Watsa | $338M | 12.8% | +172% | Watsa nearly triples KHC — either a deep-value mean-reversion bet or a hedge against USD debasement through consumer staples; size demands attention. |
| AMZN | Seth Klarman | $892M | 16.5% | +20% | Baupost's AMZN now its #1 position at 16.5%; Klarman rarely runs this concentrated in a mega-cap growth name — signals multi-year variant perception on AWS/advertising FCF. |
| AMZN | John Armitage | $852M | 8.2% | +51% | Armitage adds $360M to AMZN in a single quarter; combined with Klarman's add, aggregate new capital into AMZN from this cohort exceeds $600M. |
| MDLN | John Armitage | $650M | 6.3% | +277% | Armitage nearly quadruples Medline — a private-label medical supply company; the sheer magnitude of the add (from $194M to $650M) makes this the single most aggressive position build in the dataset. |
| SUNB | AKO Capital | $454M | 10.6% | +91% | AKO doubles Sunbelt Rentals to a top position; equipment rental is a cyclical-with-pricing-power play and AKO's style suggests confidence in secular construction/infrastructure spending. |
| APH | John Armitage | $858M | 8.3% | +69% | Amphenol becomes Armitage's #2 position; connector infrastructure for AI/datacenters and defense — the +69% share add reflects very high conviction on the AI capex cycle duration. |
| APP | Pat Dorsey | $226M | 14.5% | +39% | Dorsey's APP at 14.5% is now his largest or near-largest position; he also initiates via Terry Smith this quarter — adtech platform with mobile-gaming moat is the clearest pure-play on AI-driven ad optimization. |
| GPC | Seth Klarman | $332M | 6.1% | +89% | Klarman doubles GPC — a cyclical auto-parts distributor at distressed multiples; classic Baupost deep-value, patient capital style. |
| GEHC | Nelson Peltz | $197M | 4.7% | +76,194% | Trian essentially rebuilds its GEHC position from a token stub to a material stake; Peltz's activist track record at GE proper suggests he sees a catalyst in the healthcare spinoff's capital allocation story. |
Exits
| Ticker | Investor | Prev Value | Prev % Port | Why This Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Chris Hohn | $1,010M | 2.2% | Hohn exits a $1B MSFT holding — striking from TCI, a quality-compounder fund; may reflect AI capex cost concerns or valuation discipline after a strong run. |
| CRS | John Armitage | $525M | 5.8% | Armitage fully exits Carpenter Technology after a strong run in specialty metals; capital recycled into AMAT, EFX, and AMZN suggests a sector rotation from materials to tech/data. |
| COF | Clifford Sosin | $105M | 6.0% | Sosin exits his 6% COF position and simultaneously initiates META and VAC — a meaningful style shift within his concentrated book; COF/Discover merger overhang may have resolved favorably, triggering exit. |
| TMO | William Von Mueffling | $378M | 2.5% | Cantillon exits TMO, AON, EFX, IQV, and AMT in a single quarter — effectively a wholesale portfolio restructuring; combined exits exceed $1.6B, suggesting fund-level repositioning or significant redemptions. |
| AON | William Von Mueffling | $354M | 2.4% | Part of the Cantillon mass exit; AON was a core quality-compounder holding for years, making this a high-signal departure. |
| WTW | Seth Klarman | $260M | 5.1% | Klarman exits WTW and initiates CME — a rotation within financial infrastructure; CME's monopoly characteristics and capital return profile likely deemed superior. |
| BB | Prem Watsa | $113M | 5.8% | Watsa finally closes the chapter on his long-troubled BlackBerry position; capital freed for EGO and KHC adds. |
| ZTS | Terry Smith | $132M | 3.0% | Smith exits ZTS as part of his book rebuild; Zoetis remains a quality franchise but capital rotated to UBER/MA/NFLX suggests higher near-term return expectations elsewhere. |
| APP | Chase Coleman | $398M | 1.7% | Intriguing: Coleman exits APP (~$398M) the same quarter Pat Dorsey and Terry Smith are aggressively buying; Coleman rotating into CBRS (Cerebras) suggests he prefers pure AI infrastructure over adtech. |
| BAC | Li Lu | $146M | 4.6% | Li Lu exits BAC entirely while doubling PDD and adding BRK/B; clear signal that his long-term edge is in China and Berkshire, not US bank beta. |
Consensus Buys
Ranked by investor count, then aggregate capital deployed:
| Ticker | Investors | Aggregate New Capital | Signal Quality |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Klarman (ADD), Armitage (ADD) | ~$600M net new | High — value (Baupost) + quality-growth (Armitage) both adding at scale; 8 total holders in overlap section |
| MA | Terry Smith (NEW), Vulcan (ADD), AKO (ADD) | ~$280M combined | High — 3 distinct styles (quality compounder + value + growth); cross-style consensus on payment rails |
| APP | Pat Dorsey (ADD), Terry Smith (NEW) | ~$347M combined | High — Dorsey at 14.5% (top position) + Smith initiating; adtech/AI convergence conviction |
| UBER | Pat Dorsey (ADD), Terry Smith (NEW) | ~$340M combined | Medium-high — both quality-growth investors initiating/adding simultaneously; platform moat thesis maturing |
| SPGI | Armitage (NEW), Dorsey (ADD), Triple Frond (NEW) | ~$320M combined | High — 3 buyers across styles; data-infrastructure duopoly with Moody's getting similar attention |
| META | Clifford Sosin (NEW), Pat Dorsey (ADD) | ~$190M combined | Medium — concentrated value + moat-quality styles both buying; broader cohort holds at high weights |
| EFX | Armitage (NEW), Vulcan (NEW) | ~$249M combined | Medium-high — simultaneous initiation by growth and value managers; credit-bureau cycle recovery play |
| VEEV | Terry Smith (NEW), Rochon (NEW), Vulcan (NEW) | ~$67M combined | Medium — 3 new positions but modest sizing; quality-SaaS consensus with life-sciences moat |
| NFLX | Terry Smith (NEW), Weitz (NEW) | ~$167M combined | Medium — quality + value both initiating on advertising-tier inflection |
| MSFT | Dennis Hong (NEW), Vinall (ADD) | ~$29M combined | Low-medium — small absolute size; notable mainly because Hong replaces Hohn as a new buyer the same quarter Hohn exits |
| GDS | Klarman (ADD), Dennis Hong (ADD) | ~$125M combined | Medium — niche China data-center play; Klarman's participation elevates signal |
High-Conviction Overlap
Tickers held at meaningful weights by ≥3 investors — the "betting the farm" section:
| Ticker | # Holders | Notable Weights | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOG/GOOGL | 10 | Li Lu: 48% combined (GOOG+GOOGL); Armitage: 11%; Thomas Russo: 12%; Klarman: 9% | Broad hold; some trimming (Coleman -45% GOOGL, Von Mueffling -95% GOOGL); Li Lu unmoved = bedrock conviction |
| AMZN | 8 | Klarman: 16.5%; Tarasoff: 18.3%; Dennis Hong: 16.1%; Coleman: 9.6%; Armitage: 8.2% | Actively bought by 2 largest holders; strongest active-buying overlap in cohort |
| MA | 7 | Chris Hohn/V surrogate; Thomas Russo: 8.8%; Vulcan: 7.9%; Guy Spier: 14.3%; Wallace Weitz: 5.2%; AKO: 2.3%; Terry Smith: 4.5% (new) | New money entering (Smith + Vulcan add) into already-crowded long — validates durability |
| META | 4 | Robert Vinall: 20.4%; Chase Coleman: 6.6%; Rochon: 5.7%; Sosin (new): 4.1% | New buyer (Sosin) joining; Coleman trimming slightly — net positive flow |
| GE | 3 | Hohn: 33.6%; Peltz: 35.6%; AKO: 6.7% | Peltz + Hohn together hold >$19B; activist + quality compounder in same name = powerful alignment |
| MCO | 3 | Hohn: 12.3%; Armitage: 7.5%; Guy Spier: 8.5%; Bryan Lawrence (new): 5.7% | Rating-agency duopoly; Bryan Lawrence's initiation brings count to 4 — highest-conviction moat consensus |
| BRK | 4 | Guy Spier: 49% combined (A+B); Li Lu: 15% (B, adding); Tarasoff: 13%; Thomas Russo: 12% | Li Lu's active add to BRK/B is the freshest signal; long-term holders stable |
| CVNA | 2 | Sosin: 78.9% (!); Vinall: 30.3% | Ultra-concentrated duo; Sosin's CVNA is one of the most extreme single-stock concentrations in any institutional 13F |
| ASML | 2 | Triple Frond: 21.1%; Dorsey: 16.6% | Both at top-5 weights; semis equipment as AI-cycle infrastructure; no trimming |
| TDG | 2 | Triple Frond: 12.7%; Bryan Lawrence: 12.0% | Aerospace aftermarket monopoly at top weight for both concentrated funds |
Long US equity 13F filings only. Per-investor briefs live on each manager's page. Not investment advice.