Decision Timeline

NVDA, decision by decision.

Not just who owns it now. This is the sequence of material choices managers reported, when each choice became visible, and the observed result after disclosure.

Material decisions: 35
Buy / add: 20
Trim / exit: 15

The cohort disagreed in Q2 2026.

At least one tracked manager bought or added while another trimmed or exited. The disagreement is the signal; it is not collapsed into a consensus score.

Eight-quarter evidence

8 reported quarters

Q2 2026
filed Sep 2, 2026
64d lag
TRIM-36.7%
Joel Greenblatt · 2.3% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+2.7% vs SPY
21 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q2 2026
filed Aug 14, 2026
45d lag
TRIM-54.6%
Duan Yongping · 12.1% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+4.2% vs SPY
34 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q2 2026
filed Aug 14, 2026
45d lag
EXITEXIT
Daniel Loeb · 1.6% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+4.2% vs SPY
34 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q2 2026
filed Aug 7, 2026
38d lag
TRIM-26.6%
Jensen Investment Management · 5.6% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+7.8% vs SPY
39 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q2 2026
filed Jul 21, 2026
21d lag
ADD+27.8%
John Armitage · 6.6% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+7.2% vs SPY
52 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q1 2026
filed May 19, 2026
49d lag
ADD+91.3%
Duan Yongping · 12.1% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-6.5% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q1 2026
filed May 15, 2026
45d lag
TRIM-93.6%
Daniel Loeb · 7.6% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-3.5% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q1 2026
filed May 14, 2026
44d lag
TRIM-23.0%
Polen Capital Management · 4.2% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-5.3% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q1 2026
filed May 13, 2026
43d lag
NEWNEW
John Armitage · 5.2% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-8.6% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q1 2026
filed May 5, 2026
35d lag
TRIM-27.6%
Jensen Investment Management · 6.6% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+0.4% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Feb 17, 2026
48d lag
ADD+1110.6%
Duan Yongping · 7.7% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+10.3% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Feb 17, 2026
48d lag
ADD+119.5%
Joel Greenblatt · 2.7% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+10.3% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Feb 13, 2026
44d lag
ADD+39.3%
Lee Ainslie · 6.0% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+13.3% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q3 2025
filed Nov 14, 2025
45d lag
TRIM-27.6%
Lee Ainslie · 7.2% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-2.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q3 2025
filed Nov 14, 2025
45d lag
EXITEXIT
Viking Global Investors · 1.7% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-2.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q3 2025
filed Nov 14, 2025
45d lag
ADD+21.4%
Joel Greenblatt · 1.5% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-2.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q3 2025
filed Nov 14, 2025
45d lag
TRIM-38.0%
Duan Yongping · 1.3% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-2.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q3 2025
filed Nov 12, 2025
43d lag
ADD+36850.1%
Polen Capital Management · 3.8% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-3.9% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q3 2025
filed Nov 6, 2025
37d lag
ADD+23.6%
Jensen Investment Management · 5.0% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-2.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q2 2025
filed Aug 14, 2025
45d lag
ADD+93.1%
Daniel Loeb · 5.8% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+0.9% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q2 2025
filed Aug 14, 2025
45d lag
ADD+483.3%
David Tepper · 4.3% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+0.9% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q2 2025
filed Aug 14, 2025
45d lag
TRIM-43.7%
Viking Global Investors · 2.3% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+0.9% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q2 2025
filed Aug 14, 2025
45d lag
ADD+49.6%
Duan Yongping · 1.3% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+0.9% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q2 2025
filed Aug 14, 2025
45d lag
ADD+414.0%
Joel Greenblatt · 1.1% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+0.9% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q2 2025
filed Aug 8, 2025
39d lag
NEWNEW
Jensen Investment Management · 3.2% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-2.4% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q1 2025
filed May 15, 2025
45d lag
ADD+33.9%
Lee Ainslie · 5.5% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+24.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q1 2025
filed May 15, 2025
45d lag
NEWNEW
Daniel Loeb · 2.5% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+24.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q1 2025
filed May 15, 2025
45d lag
ADD+222.0%
Viking Global Investors · 2.3% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+24.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q1 2025
filed May 15, 2025
45d lag
TRIM-55.9%
David Tepper · 1.4% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+24.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q1 2025
filed May 15, 2025
45d lag
NEWNEW
Duan Yongping · 0.6% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+24.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q1 2025
filed May 15, 2025
45d lag
TRIM-49.7%
Joel Greenblatt · 0.4% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+24.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q4 2024
filed Feb 14, 2025
45d lag
TRIM-56.1%
Joel Greenblatt · 0.9% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-0.3% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q3 2024
filed Nov 14, 2024
45d lag
ADD+63.6%
Viking Global Investors · 1.0% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-6.9% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q3 2024
filed Nov 14, 2024
45d lag
EXITEXIT
Stanley Druckenmiller · 0.9% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-6.9% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q3 2024
filed Nov 14, 2024
45d lag
ADD+194.2%
Joel Greenblatt · 0.9% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-6.9% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far

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Material means a new or exited position, or at least a 20% share-count change, with at least 0.5% portfolio weight or $100 million reported value. Share counts are adjusted for confirmed splits. Outcomes start after disclosure, not at an invented trade date, and are not manager returns.