Decision Timeline

FLUT, decision by decision.

Not just who owns it now. This is the sequence of material choices managers reported, when each choice became visible, and the observed result after disclosure.

Material decisions: 24
Buy / add: 10
Trim / exit: 14

The cohort disagreed in Q4 2025.

At least one tracked manager bought or added while another trimmed or exited. The disagreement is the signal; it is not collapsed into a consensus score.

Eight-quarter evidence

4 reported quarters

Q4 2025
filed Feb 17, 2026
48d lag
EXITEXIT
Daniel Loeb · 3.4% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-30.8% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Feb 17, 2026
48d lag
EXITEXIT
Stephen Mandel · 3.2% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-30.8% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Feb 17, 2026
48d lag
EXITEXIT
Henry Ellenbogen · 2.3% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-30.8% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Feb 17, 2026
48d lag
ADD+58.9%
Bill Nygren · 0.3% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-30.8% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Feb 11, 2026
42d lag
TRIM-49.1%
Tom Bancroft · 10.6% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-42.0% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q4 2025
filed Feb 11, 2026
42d lag
EXITEXIT
John Armitage · 3.8% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-42.0% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q3 2025
filed Nov 17, 2025
48d lag
TRIM-23.5%
Tom Bancroft · 9.3% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-40.8% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q3 2025
filed Nov 14, 2025
45d lag
TRIM-71.6%
Stanley Druckenmiller · 3.0% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-37.4% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q3 2025
filed Nov 14, 2025
45d lag
ADD+274.1%
Henry Ellenbogen · 2.3% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-37.4% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q3 2025
filed Nov 14, 2025
45d lag
EXITEXIT
Viking Global Investors · 1.9% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-37.4% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q3 2025
filed Nov 14, 2025
45d lag
TRIM-54.8%
Lee Ainslie · 1.3% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-37.4% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q3 2025
filed Nov 14, 2025
45d lag
TRIM-20.8%
Bill Nygren · 0.4% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-37.4% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q3 2025
filed Nov 14, 2025
45d lag
TRIM-57.6%
Joel Greenblatt · 0.1% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-37.4% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q2 2025
filed Aug 14, 2025
45d lag
ADD+29.4%
Lee Ainslie · 1.3% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-26.6% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q2 2025
filed Aug 14, 2025
45d lag
ADD+57.6%
Henry Ellenbogen · 0.7% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-26.6% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q2 2025
filed Aug 14, 2025
45d lag
ADD+41.0%
Bill Nygren · 0.4% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-26.6% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q2 2025
filed Aug 14, 2025
45d lag
TRIM-25.6%
Joel Greenblatt · 0.1% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-26.6% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q2 2025
filed Aug 12, 2025
43d lag
TRIM-33.9%
John Armitage · 5.6% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
-27.7% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q1 2025
filed May 15, 2025
45d lag
ADD+1985.5%
Stanley Druckenmiller · 2.8% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+9.2% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q1 2025
filed May 15, 2025
45d lag
ADD+36.7%
Viking Global Investors · 1.8% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+9.2% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q1 2025
filed May 15, 2025
45d lag
NEWNEW
Bill Nygren · 0.2% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+9.2% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q1 2025
filed May 15, 2025
45d lag
ADD+99.5%
Joel Greenblatt · 0.1% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+9.2% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far
Q1 2025
filed May 14, 2025
44d lag
TRIM-46.4%
Tom Bancroft · 8.7% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+8.8% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction not supported so far
Q1 2025
filed May 14, 2025
44d lag
NEWNEW
AKO Capital · 7.4% of reported portfolio
Original SEC filing ↗
+8.8% vs SPY
63 sessions after disclosure
direction supported so far

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Material means a new or exited position, or at least a 20% share-count change, with at least 0.5% portfolio weight or $100 million reported value. Share counts are adjusted for confirmed splits. Outcomes start after disclosure, not at an invented trade date, and are not manager returns.