LatticeworkTHE EVIDENCE DESK
Decision record· TRIM · Q2 2026

Polen Capital Management cut MSFT by 26%. Was the sale a warning?

The filing established that Polen Capital Management reduced MSFT shares by 26.3%. It did not reveal transaction dates, execution prices, or the manager's reason for the change.

Share𝕏in

Latticework verdict

Context, not a trade alert

Meaningful reduction. Low causal precision.

A 6.7% reported portfolio weight makes this reduction material. Pattern: sustained reduction. But the disclosed change could have occurred anywhere in the quarter and was published 35 days after quarter end, making it 35–125 days old at disclosure. Use it to investigate the thesis, not to copy an entry or exit.

Inspect the original SEC filing ↗See the disclosure delay ↓

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Reported shares
-26.3%
−747,275
Portfolio weight
6.7%
from 7.3%
Quarter-end value
$783M
not purchase cost
Signal age
35–125d
when disclosed

What the clock tells us

Apr 1, 2026

Change window opens

The net change could begin here—or later.

Jun 30, 2026

Quarter-end snapshot

The filing measures shares and fair value on this date.

Aug 4, 2026

Public disclosure

The snapshot arrived 35 days after quarter end.

The filing does not identify transaction dates inside the Apr 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2026 change window.

What we know

  • Shares: 2,845,888 → 2,098,613, a net reduction of 747,275.
  • Weight: MSFT moved from 7.3% to 6.7% of Polen Capital Management's reported long U.S. equity book.
  • Pattern: Reported shares fell in 3 consecutive observed quarters. Reported weight path: 2025Q1 7.0% → 2025Q2 8.3% → 2025Q3 8.4% → 2025Q4 8.1% → 2026Q1 7.3% → 2026Q2 6.7%.
  • Valuation snapshot: the filing implies $373.02 per share at quarter end. That is reported fair value, not Polen Capital Management's entry price.

Decision test

Meaningful?Yes
Large share change and material book weight. Pattern: sustained reduction.
Timely?No
The information was 35–125 days old at publication.
Corroborated?Mixed
9 material buy/add and 13 trim/exit signals across the cohort.
Copyable?No
No trade dates, cost basis, rationale, or manager-specific constraints.

Source versions and follow-through

What was recorded, and when?

First registered 2026-09-07 · source version 1, recorded 2026-09-07. The source filing was public on 2026-08-04; registration here happened separately.

Prospective observation · tracking

This version's clock begins at the first shared market close strictly after 2026-09-07. The filing date alone cannot backdate a selection. Earlier post-filing returns remain in the retrospective tracker below.

4.8% stock · 0.7% SPY · +4.0 percentage points vs SPY · 2026-09-08–2026-10-02 (19 closes).

Inspect source versions and corrections (1)

  1. Version 1 · 2026-09-07

    First prospective registration; earlier filing returns remain retrospective.

    TRIM · 7.29% before → 6.74% after.

    Original SEC source ↗

    Source snapshot SHA-256 33abbd77e8e118b454c7ea81e77db4bbefdf1caf71eafbaacd12b9a994165746

30 dated prospective observations retained. Source changes restart the revised claim's clock; previous versions and observations stay in the registry.

Download the source and observation registry

Registration versions are retained in this project's history, not certified by an independent timestamp authority. This is an editorial sample with overlapping stocks, not a prediction or a manager portfolio backtest.

Retrospective outcome tracker · tracking

What happened after disclosure?

42 sessions · through Oct 2, 2026

Measured from the first shared market close after the SEC filing—not from the manager's unknown entry or exit price.

MSFT
+6.4%
SPY
+0.2%
Vs SPY
+6.1%

The disclosed direction is not supported so far.

Early performance can reverse. This is observation, not a verdict on the manager or the security.

The cohort did not move as one

Tracked managers disclosed 9 material buy/add signals and 13 trim/exit signals in MSFT. Quarter-end cohort ownership moved from 37 to 34. This was disagreement, not consensus.

Source trail and limits

Original SEC filing ↗Full Q2 2026 diff →MSFT researchPolen Capital Management portfolio →Outcome prices ↗
  • A 13F reports quarter-end holdings, not transaction dates or execution prices.
  • The net share change may represent multiple purchases and sales during the quarter.
  • Portfolio weight covers Polen Capital Management's disclosed long U.S. 13F book, not its full assets or exposures.
  • Quarter-end value per share is reported fair value divided by shares; it is not the manager's cost basis.

SEC accession 0001172661-26-003035 · CUSIP 594918104

Primary-source research, not investment advice.